David Ortiz and 6 Game Stretches

Joe Flood and I collaborated on a quick one for David Ortiz’s best 6-game performances, shortly after his amazing World Series run.

I want to add some additional insight to the data. In order to get discrete streaks, we only took the highest streak for a period and then excluded any overlapping games. Unfortunately, this did obscure some of the data. Realistically, from 9/22/2007 – 9/28/2007, OPS 1.906, was his 4th best streak. When combined with his 9/27/2007 – 10/7/2007 streak, OPS 2.329, you get a ridiculous 10 game streak that outpaces all of his 6-game streaks in his life (except for the 6-game streak inherently included), his OPS was 1.957 from 9/23/2007 – 10/12/2007. Also, if you take a look at the streaks from 2007, he was absolutely on fire from August 18th to the end of the year:

  • 8/18/2007 – 8/24/2007 (OPS 1.702)
  • 9/8/2007 – 9/14/2007 (OPS 1.750)
  • 9/27/2007 – 10/7/2007 (OPS 2.329)

The other, slightly more obscure thing we looked at was WPA (Win Probability Added). We looked at a rolling 6-game average to see when Ortiz was the most “clutch,” fully recognizing that you have to be put into the situation, so it’s not perfectly representative of how hot Ortiz was. Obviously, 2004 playoffs was near the top of the list:

  • #1: 7/25/2006 – 8/1/2006 – WPA/G 0.250
  • #2: 8/29/2003 – 9/3/2003 – WPA/G 0.231
  • #3: 8/7/2011 – 8/13/2011 – WPA/G 0.221
  • #4: 5/28/2005 – 6/2/2005 – WPA/G 0.220
  • #5: 10/8/2004 – 10/18/2004 – WPA/G 0.214

Number 5 above is the well known ALCS comeback through Game 5 of the ALCS, when Ortiz had two consecutive walk off hits in extra innings, as well as a few other RBI. It’s worth remembering that Ortiz also had a walk off HR to win the ALDS Game 3, to eliminate the Angels earlier in the week.

But what about number 1 above? What did Ortiz do that week?

July 29th – 4 for 5, 4 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB, walk off with 2 outs in 11th. Sox win 7-6, (note he has 4 RBI – half of all runs).
July 31st – 3 for 5, 4 RBI, 2 R, 1 K, Game tying HR in 3rd, walk-off 3 R HR in 9th, down by 2 runs, 1 out. Sox win 9-8

Not a bad couple of days.

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