Archive for the month “May, 2012”

18 May 2012
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Week 6 EGI: Cubs-Brewers Take Over

This week the Cubs and Brewers have taken over the leaderboard. The Cubs are also pulling themselves from the bottom of the league with two different exciting games. Here are the top 10 of the week.

Teams Date EGI
Cubs Brewers 11-May 66.86*
Diamondbacks Rockies 17-May 61.17
Cardinals Cubs 15-May 60.26
Giants Rockies 15-May 55.93
Braves Cardinals 11-May 55.89*
Orioles Royals 16-May 55.28*
Nationals Reds 13-May 54.32
Mets Marlins 13-May 53.61
Indians Mariners 17-May 52.62*
Giants Rockies 14-May 52.00

*denotes extra innings

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Posted by Jeffrey Lacouture in egi and tagged ,
14 May 2012

Correlating EGI: Is It Luck?

It’s important to understand where EGI comes from if we want to predict it for the future. With about 20% of the season past, it’s possible to draw some early conclusions about the underlying factors of EGI. Looking at an individual game, it’s easy to see if that game is going to be scored well: lead changes, late come backs, blown saves – all of these things will drive the score up. But what gets a team into these situations?

Certainly being in close games makes a big difference. Blowing out too many games, or being blown out won’t keep people interested late in the game. Take a look at the Angels, the least exciting team, and you’ll see a lot of blow out games (in both directions). In fact, only 15 of their 34 games have been within 3 runs. Compare this to the Nationals, who have 25 of 33 games within 3 runs, and 16 of 33 within 1 run.

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Posted by Jeffrey Lacouture in advanced, egi and tagged , | Leave a Comment
11 May 2012
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Week 5 EGI: Nationals Stay On Top

The Nationals stayed on top this week with another thriller. Their May 8th game had the notable distinction of beating out an Orioles at Red Sox 17-inning game.

Teams Date EGI
Nationals Pirates 8-May 62.94
Red Sox Orioles 6-May 62.17*
Marlins Astros 9-May 58.94*
Braves Rockies 4-May 53.52*
Rays Athletics 5-May 53.40*
Phillies Nationals 4-May 53.22*
Blue Jays Athletics 8-May 52.28
White Sox Tigers 4-May 51.97
Red Sox Orioles 4-May 51.47*
Marlins Padres 4-May 50.93*

*denotes extra innings

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Posted by Jeffrey Lacouture in egi and tagged , , ,
11 May 2012

Red Sox-Yankees: An Unexpected, Unexciting Game

What makes a game exciting? We all know it when we see it: lead changes, a big come back, extra innings, a lot of baserunners. However, the way in which all these things happen matter. On April 21st, there was a particularly interesting game, although it turned out to be less exciting than you’d expect at first glance.

The game was Yankees at Red Sox. It involved a huge comeback by the Yankees over a pivotal two innings. Down 9-0 in the 6th, and 9-1 in the 7th, the Yankees were completely out of the game. And then, over the course of 13 batters, they scored 10 runs to take the lead. Over the next 11 batters they piled on 5 more runs and put the game out of reach. Here’s a chart of their Win Expectancy:

Yankees Win Expectancy

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Posted by Jeffrey Lacouture in egi and tagged , | Leave a Comment
11 May 2012

Week 4 EGI: Harper’s Debut Dazzles

Bryce Harper has landed in the big leagues in a very big way. In his first big league game, the Nationals and Dodgers played a 10 inning game that tops the leaderboard.

Teams Date EGI
Nationals Dodgers 28-Apr 64.40*
Nationals Diamondbacks 2-May 63.38
Phillies Braves 2-May 58.95*
Rays Mariners 30-Apr 56.51*
Cardinals Brewers 29-Apr 55.36
Royals Twins 27-Apr 55.08
Rockies Dodgers 2-May 51.95
Mets Rockies 29-Apr 51.87*
Blue Jays Rangers 1-May 51.19
Yankees Tigers 27-Apr 49.86

* denotes extra innings

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Posted by Jeffrey Lacouture in egi and tagged , , | Leave a Comment

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